A Quarter of a Century of Border Crossings Through Arizona’s Ports of Entry

Northbound border crossings by trucks and personal vehicles have recovered but crossings by people have not

The dynamics of border crossings reflect a complex web of local, regional, and international connections and interchanges. Arizona border ports of entry facilitate commercial exchanges between the U.S. and Canada, and Mexico, and personal transportation for work-related commuting, shopping, leisure, cultural and family connections between twin border communities as well as throughout the border region and beyond.

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) of the United States Department of Transportation provides annual and monthly data on border crossings starting with 1996.[1] With data available just two years after the inauguration of the first free trade agreement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico (NAFTA), it is possible to assess the changes in cross-border dynamics over more than a quarter of a century.

Freight-related crossings on the rise; crossings in cars and on foot down from the turn of the century

As shown in Figure 1, only the truck crossings have displayed an upward trend reflecting the increasing trade exchanges within the three North American trade partners. In 2022, trucks made 452,848 crossings, the highest number of crossings in any year so far.  Compared to the baseline of 1996 with 324,235 crossings, this was an increase of close to 40%. In contrast, the lines representing personal vehicles and people crossings show a profoundly different picture.

Figure 1. Northbound Border Crossings Through Arizona’s Border Ports of Entry, 1996-2022 (1996=100)

The number of crossings in the last twenty years of both cars and people has decreased compared to the turn of the century. In 2022, personal vehicles made 9,404,110 crossings, and although it was more than 10% above the 1996 level, the crossings were below the highest volumes recorded in 2000 through 2002 when cars made more than 10.3 million crossings.  The largest number of crossings, however, was made by people, a total of 22,676,629 crossings in 2022, which includes those who crossed the border in personal vehicles, buses, or pedestrians. Compared to the 1996 baseline, people crossings in 2022 were down almost 22%. However, compared to the highest volumes at the turn of the century, the people crossings fell even further by almost 40%.

The crossings of personal vehicles and people have been more sensitive to exogenous factors such as economic downturns, the fluctuations of dollar-peso exchanges, and the implementation of border security. People crossings were particularly impacted by restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic when border crossings were limited to the so-called “essential” crossers. Although in 2022 people made more crossings than in either 2020 or 2021, the total number of crossings was still about 4% below the pre-COVID-19 level.

Truck crossings: high seasonality and concentration at the Nogales Ports of Entry

 Figures 2 and 3 visualize the key characteristics of the truck crossing dynamics and draw attention to the differences among Arizona’s six ports.  The Nogales port accounts for more than 80% of all northbound truck crossings; an 81.9 % share in 2022 compared to a low 70% at the end of the 20^th century.  Increased security concerns together with the more sophisticated infrastructure needed for the processing of truck crossings are largely responsible for the increased concentration at the Nogales port as Arizona’s premier port of entry from Mexico.  Trailing behind Nogales are ports at San Luis and Douglas.  San Luis’ share in 2022 was 10.8% of all truck crossings, a slight increase over the last few years, but still below 14.4% in 1996, while Douglas’ share had been on a declining trend from 11.7% in 1996 to 6.5% in 2022.

Figure 2. Northbound Truck Crossings Through Arizona’s Major Border Ports of Entry, January 1996-February 2023

Figure 2 clearly shows a typical pattern of the Nogales port with high volumes during winter months associated with the importation of Mexican fresh produce during high season which falls approximately between November and April.

Outside the three major ports, less than one in 100 trucks crossed the border at three smaller ports, Naco, Lukeville, or Sasabe. In fact, the Sasabe port stopped processing commercial crossings in 2010, and since then facilitates only crossings of personal cars and pedestrians.  As shown in Figure 3, the commercial traffic through the Naco and Lukeville ports in the last twenty years has dropped to about half of what it used to be in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Figure 3. Northbound Truck Crossings Through Arizona’s Less Traveled Border Ports of Entry, January 1996 - February 2023

Nogales and San Luis border ports of entry are major gateways for personal vehicle crossings

While commercial crossings are heavily concentrated at the Nogales port, the crossings of personal vehicles are almost equally distributed between Nogales and San Luis. In 2022, more than 3.7 million car crossings were recorded through the Nogales port and another 3.4 million through the San Luis port. Together, this accounted for 75.1 % of all crossings through Arizona ports. Another 1.6 million crossings, or 16.6%, took place at the Douglas port. The 2022 crossings exceeded not only the pandemic years but also the pre-pandemic year 2019. However, compared to the late 1990s, the crossings are down.  As shown in Figure 4, the crossings vary from month to month, but the differences between months are smaller than those associated with commercial crossings.

Figure 4. Northbound Car Crossings Through Arizona’s Major Border Ports of Entry, January 1996 - February 2023

Among the remaining three ports, Lukeville distinguishes itself with a pronounced seasonal fluctuation between high and low volumes of car crossings, as shown in Figure 5. This is largely due to its role as a major gateway to the Sonoran coast along the Sea of Cortez (Golfo de California), most notably the Puerto Penasco (or Rocky Point), the closest and traditionally favorite maritime resort for Arizona’s residents during winter months. In 2022, 442,171 crossings were recorded at the port, which was above both the 2022 and 2021 levels. Based on the 2008 study, the last one for which data on the national composition of border crossings were available, the northbound crossings through the Lukeville port consisted overwhelmingly of returning U.S. citizens  (78.1%).[2]  At all other ports, the majority of crossings were associated with Mexican nationals.

Figure 5. Northbound Car Crossings Through Arizona’s Less Traveled Border Ports of Entry, January 1996 - February 2023

People cross the border predominantly as car passengers

In 2022, people made a total of 22.7 million crossings from Mexico through all six Arizona border ports of entry.  Compared to the turn of the century, the number of crossings has significantly declined from the highest 36.8 million recorded in 2002, just before the new homeland security restrictions were implemented for border crossings. The declining trend continued reaching its lowest point around 2010 which coincided with a combination of economic downturn, the declining value of the Mexican peso vs. US dollar, and the implementation of Arizona’s SB 1070.[3] By 2017-2018, the crossings resumed an upward trend, but remained significantly below previous high volumes, until the COVID pandemic caused the sharpest decline not seen since the last century.  Although the 2022 crossings almost doubled the amount recorded during the pandemic-restricted crossings of 2020, they were still below the pre-pandemic levels.

As shown in Figure 6, the majority of crossings were made by car.  Car passengers accounted for about 75% of all crossings, pedestrians made up 24%, and the remaining one percent consisted of border crossers traveling by bus.

Figure 6. Northbound Passenger and Pedestrian Crossings Through Arizona’s Border Ports of Entry, 1996-2022

With the exception of the Lukeville port, Mexican nationals have traditionally accounted for the majority of crossings at all other ports ranging from 62% at Douglas and 86.7% at San Luis, according to the 2008 study.[4] Since then, the economic and political landscapes have changed. The trade data suggests continuing economic integration between the U.S. and Mexico on local and national levels, but at the same time a number of new developments – stricter border security procedures, longer waiting times for border crossings, the availability of online shopping, remote working arrangements, and preference for traveling by air rather than driving long distances by car – have contributed to a reduction in physical border crossings.

The Nogales port experienced the largest decline in people crossings

While the Nogales port remains the major port of entry for northbound crossings of people, the number of crossings is nowhere near the heyday volumes of the late 1990s and early 2000s, as revealed in Figure 7. Just as the crossings were to rebound in the middle of the second decade of the 21^st century, the COVID pandemic stroke, and caused the never-seen-before drop to about 5 million crossings in 2020 (compared to more than 16 million in 2000).

The crossings at the San Luis port, the second largest for people crossings, have also declined compared to the turn of the century, but less dramatically than at the Nogales port.  Together, the Nogales and San Luis ports account for 84.6% of the pedestrian crossings, 74.2% of crossings by car, and 97.0% of passenger crossings by bus.  The crossings at the Douglas port have been on a declining path since 2002. Currently, the port accounts for 16.4% of total passenger crossings, 12.5% of pedestrian crossings, and less than 1% of bus passenger crossings.

Figure 7. Northbound Passenger and Pedestrian Crossings Through Arizona’s Major Border Ports of Entry, 1996-2022

In 2022, the three less traveled ports – Lukeville, Naco, and Sasabe – accounted together for less than 10% of all crossings, the same as in the late 1990s. These crossings were mostly associated with crossings by car. The Lukeville and Naco ports facilitate a small number of pedestrian crossings, mostly of a local nature. The bus crossings were in operation only at the Lukeville port.  In the last decade, Lukeville and Naco show a similar pattern in crossings before and after the pandemic (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Northbound Passenger and Pedestrian Crossings at Arizona’s Less Traveled Border Ports of Entry, 1996-2022

January-March 2023: returning to the pre-pandemic border crossing dynamics

In summary, the combined data for all Arizona’s border ports of entry indicate that by the end of 2022, both the truck crossings and personal vehicles surpassed the pre-COVID year 2019. In contrast, people crossings (as passengers in cars or buses and as pedestrians) remained below the 2019 level.

However, during the first three months of 2023, all types of crossings, except for buses, have increased compared to the same period last year, as shown in Figure 9.

Figure 9. Northbound Crossings at Arizona’s Border Ports of Entry, January – March of the Year

Pronounced differences between individual ports have remained and even deepened. Truck crossings have increased only at the Nogales port (4.5%); the San Luis and Douglas ports saw the highest increases in personal vehicles crossings (12.7% and 10.2%); San Luis and Douglas also recorded the highest increase in crossings of personal vehicle passengers 14.4% and 13.8%), while the Nogales port experienced the largest increase in pedestrian crossings (20%).