Essential Return of “Non-Essential” Border Crossers

The lifting of restrictions on border crossings for travelers who were categorized as “non-essential” during the COVID-19 pandemic, has been received with great relief by families living on both sides of the border, and by renewed expectations especially in border cities and towns that historically have depended on spending by cross-border visitors. On November 8, 2021 -- for the first time since the restrictions were implemented in March 2020 -- the “non-essential” travelers from Mexico (as well as Canada) were allowed to cross into the U.S. via land ports providing that they were fully vaccinated.[1] While the time span is rather short for assessing the full effects of the lifting of restrictions, anecdotal reports from Arizona’s border cities have suggested a rising tide in border crossings in last few months.[2][3] A closer look at monthly data has revealed that, in fact, a recovery trend started in 2021 even before the restrictions were lifted suggesting a rise in crossings of “essential” crossers.

All Crossings at Arizona BPOE Surpassed 2020 Volumes

In 2019, more than 23.5 million northbound crossings were recorded at the Arizona-Mexico border ports of entry (BPOE) made by persons arriving in personal vehicles, by bus, or as pedestrians. The COVID-19 restrictions were the main cause of a drop of 43% to a 13.4 million crossings in 2020, comprised mainly of “essential” crossers as defined by the Department of Homeland Security.[4] Figure 1 compares border crossings during last three years. Aside from clearly identifying the three main ports of entry – Nogales, San Luis, and Douglas – Figure 1 depicts the effect of the pandemic in 2020, following with recovery in 2021, and provides a comparison with pre-pandemic volumes in 2019. (Note that about 52,000 crossings at Sasabe are not visible due to the scale). While at every port the number of crossings in 2021 exceeded the pandemic 2020 year, the numbers were still significantly below the pre-pandemic 2019.

Figure 1. Arizona-Mexico Border: Northbound Crossings 2019-2021

Recovery in 2021 Included a Rise in “Essential” Crossings

In the pre-pandemic year, close to 2,000,000 crossings into Arizona were recorded on a monthly basis. Crossings would regularly pick up and exceed 2 million during the holiday season’s months of December and January, and again in March and July. During the pandemic 2020, the crossings dropped to an average 1,117,000 a month, a decline of about 850,000 due to either strict application of the “essential” designation, closure of business or job, personal discouragement for international travel, or any combination of those. The opening of the border to non-essential crossers at the end of 2021 increased significantly the number of crossings over 2020 by about 700,000 in November and 900,000 in December. While the release of the restrictions on non-essential crossers certainly contributed to the overall rise in annual number of crossings, the recovery started much sooner, as suggested by data shown in Figure 2. Starting in March 2021, border crossings were on the rise, and by definition, until November of 2021, those were all classified as “essential” crossings.

Figure 2. Arizona-Mexico Border: Northbound Crossings 2019-2021, by Month

Preference for Crossing by Car Slightly Increased

In 2021, 12.4 million border crossings were done in personal vehicles, a decline of 42% from the pre-pandemic year, but a recovery of 31.4 percent from the pandemic 2020. Traditionally, crossing the border in personal vehicles has been the main mode by which people have entered Arizona from Mexico. At the turn of the century, between 72 and 76 percent of crossings were done in personal vehicles, followed by a decade of declining share to below 70% of the total annual crossings through year 2014. Last several years the share of crossings in personal vehicles started to rise again above 70%. In 2021, more than 73% of crossings were done in personal vehicles, an increase from both 2019 and 2020. Accounting for only up to one percent of all crossings, the crossings by bus were affected the most by COVID-19 restrictions dropping 65% in 2020, but also had the highest rate of recovery of 120%, although the absolute numbers remain very small. The overall composition of border crossings, however, has not been significantly affected by the pandemic, as illustrated in Figure 3. The pattern of the last ten years pretty much resembles the one at the turn of the century.

Figure 3. Arizona-Mexico Border: Composition of Northbound Crossings 1996-2021

Smaller Number of Passengers per Vehicle Crossing

In the last decade it was observed that the average number of passengers per vehicle crossing has declined to less than two persons per vehicle compared to previous period with averages between two and three persons. In both 2020 and 2021 the average number of persons per vehicle crossing has been the lowest in last 25 years as shown in Figure 4. The drop is likely due to initial COVID-19 restrictions when only some household members were able to qualify as “essential.” Average car occupancy increased slightly in 2021, but still remains the lowest since 1990s.

Figure 4. Arizona-Mexico Border: Passengers Crossings per Vehicle Crossing

Pedestrian Crossings More Affected While Recovering at Slower Rate

While both main modes of border crossings were severely affected by the pandemic-related restrictions, pedestrian crossings took deeper cuts than crossings in personal vehicles. Pedestrian crossings in 2020 fell 44.7% compared to a 42% drop in the number of crossings in personal vehicle. By 2021, personal vehicle passenger crossings recovered by 31.4% over the pandemic year, while pedestrian crossings rose only 11.5%. By 2021, pedestrian crossings remained 38.3% below the pre-pandemic level compared to a relatively smaller “deficit” of 23.8% in vehicle passenger crossings.

Figure 5 compares monthly crossings of pedestrians with those crossing the border as passengers in personal vehicles or in bus. By the end of 2021, passenger crossings almost reached the pre-pandemic December level, which suggests a positive effect of reduced restrictions on non-essential crossers. It also suggests that the passenger crossings were more responsive to the lifting of restriction than was the case with pedestrian crossings. Although pedestrian crossings were also on a recovery course, the December 2021 crossings were still below the pre-pandemic December 2019.

Figure 5. Arizona-Mexico Border: Pedestrian vs. Passenger Crossings, 2019-2021

Uneven Rates of Recovery Among Arizona Border Ports

Figure 6 shows that all modes of border crossings in 2021 were below the pre-pandemic level with the exception of pedestrian crossings at Sasabe and bus passenger crossings at Lukeville. Both ports account for a small share of total northbound crossings from Mexico into Arizona. Nogales and San Luis are Arizona’s major ports of entry; together they account for about 85% of all pedestrian crossings and about 74% of all crossings by personal vehicles and busses. Data suggest that crossings at the Nogales port took deeper cuts than at San Luis and were also recovering at a slower rate (except for bus crossings, which are negligible in the overall volume). At Sasabe pedestrian crossings resumed in 2021 way above the pre-pandemic level, but the total volume of crossings is very small in the overall picture (less than 1,000).

Figure 6. Arizona-Mexico Border: Border Crossings 2021 as % Change from 2019

Economic Importance of Border Crossings

The importance of border crossings for Arizona’s economy, and especially border cities and counties, has been investigated in several studies in the past. The studies focused on economic impacts of expenditures by Mexican nationals while visiting Arizona, including people who regularly crossed the border for work. Traditionally, Mexican nationals accounted for more than 70% of all crossings into Arizona through border ports, but current data do not allow ascertaining to what extent the recorded crossings are associated with residents of Mexico versus U.S. and Canadian crossers returning from Mexico.[6] In the past, a major worry of Arizona’s border communities that depended on Mexican shoppers was the probability of sudden peso devaluation, which indeed caused severe negative impacts on their economies a number of times. Since the last major devaluation of Mexican currency in 1994, a number of other developments -- among them restrictions imposed by the tightening of border security -- have had a more pronounced effect on border crossings. But none had such a drastic effect as did this, for most of us invisible, but outrageously potent “thing” named COVID-19.