Mexico Update: December 2019

Dec. 15, 2019
By George W. Hammond, research professor and director of the Economic and Business Research Center
EBRC

Want to learn more about Mexico's economy? Trying to keep abreast of changes in the U.S.-Mexico trade relationship and the economic environment for our nearest neighbor to the south? Browse research and news the AZMEX team recommends this quarter.

Research on the Mexican economy and U.S.-Mexico trade

The Mexico Economic Update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available. Check out the latest high-frequency data for the Mexico economy which showed that GDP expanded marginally at 0.4% in Q3 2019, after a 0.1% gain in Q2 2019, and a 0.7% contraction in Q1 2019. 

Take a listen to this compelling episode of the Trade Talks podcast (Episode 111) which discusses current U.S. trade policy with the former USTR General Counsel.

Visit the Mexico Institute research website at the Wilson Center for up-to-date coverage on the USMCA ratification process. The Peterson Institute for International Economics also compiles current news and commentary on the USMCA. For Arizona specifics, check out this informational website from the Arizona-Mexico Commission: usmcanow.org. It has a wealth of resources focusing on the importance of USMCA for Arizona trade.

Don’t miss the latest IMF World Economic Outlook including forecasts for Mexico! This outlook puts the global growth forecast at 3.0% for 2019, the lowest level since 2008-09, due to a global manufacturing downturn and rising trade barriers.

The Third Quarter 2019 issue of the Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast (Volume 22, Number 3) can now be downloaded for free from UTEP’s Digital Commons website. This report's consensus GDP growth forecast was slashed to 0.72% growth in 2019 with almost no rebound in 2020; ongoing energy sector and infrastructure issues within Mexico have contributed to worsening macroeconomic conditions.

The November issue of the Borderplex Business Barometer (Volume 3, Number 11) is also available for free from UTEP’s Digital Commons website. The report summarizes recent economic trends in El Paso, Las Cruces, and Ciudad Juárez.

Final update on the Tomato Suspension Agreement: The U.S. Department of Commerce finalized the 2019 Suspension Agreement on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico on September 19, 2019. This new agreement was negotiated after the Department of Commerce terminated the 2013 Suspension Agreement on the Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico in May 2019, resulting in continuation of its anti-dumping investigation. On November 22, 2019, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) made an affirmative determination and upheld the new agreement.

Mexico in the News