The Flow of Tomatoes, Grapes, and Avocados through Nogales

Mexican-grown vegetables and fruit account for about 22% of the total U.S. imports through Arizona’s border ports of entry.[1] Due to their highly seasonable pattern, their share in total imports varies between close to 35% in winter months and less than 10% during summer. This striking difference in monthly flow between the agricultural imports and all other commodities, most of which are manufacturing products, is shown in Figure 1. The chart also vividly portrays the uneven effect of the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a drastic dent in the flow of manufacturing imports in March and April of 2020, while the import of vegetables and fruit was almost unaffected.  The same appears to be true in reverse, when imports of vegetables and fruit remained untouched by the recovery-related surge in imports of other commodities at the beginning of 2022. 

Figure 1. U.S. Imports from Mexico through Arizona Ports of Entry ($)

Vegetables Dominate but Fruit Extend High Import Season

Both the vegetable and fruit imports from Mexico through Arizona exhibit a pronounced seasonal pattern, as shown in Figure 2. This pattern reflects foremost the climate conditions in two primary growing regions serving the U.S. market through Arizona ports: the states of Sinaloa and Sonora. The majority of tomatoes, cucumbers, squash, and peppers - the staple of imported fresh produce from Mexico through Arizona ports – are grown mostly in open fields in Sinaloa and thus have been dependent on weather conditions. The high vegetable shipping season usually lasts from November through April. More recently, grapes from Sonora had risen to a top fruit commodity for export to the U.S. markets. Although limited to a relatively short window from early May through mid-July, the import of grapes has profoundly extended the high winter season dominated by vegetables into late spring-early summer season dominated by fruit imports.

Figure 2. U.S. Imports of Mexican Vegetable and Fruit through Arizona Ports of Entry ($)

High Seasonality of Top Vegetable Imports

Tomatoes and cucumbers are two principal vegetable commodities imported from Mexico through Arizona ports, accounting for about 40% of the value of all vegetables. Peppers follow at some distance as number three in the overall composition (Figure 3). By value, tomatoes peak during the month of January and clearly dominate the vegetable imports during the winter season. Although significantly reduced during summer months, the import of these three vegetables continues by taking advantage of greenhouse production, mainly in Sonora.

Figure 3. Top Vegetable Imports from Mexico through Arizona Ports of Entry ($)

Delayed Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Vegetable Imports

A comparison of January-April data in Figure 4 confirms that the beginning of the pandemic, which caused severe reduction in manufacturing trade in March-April 2020, did not immediately affect vegetable trade. The pandemic effects started to show later when demand for fresh vegetables declined as hotel and restaurant businesses shut down. At the same time, many operations in Mexico were forced to lay off laborers as pandemic-related restrictions were imposed.  Labor shortages were also reported as seasonal workers left earlier to go home in southern states fearful that they might not be able to return due to a lock down.[2] The total value of imported tomatoes and peppers during January through April 2022 is still below the 2019 level.

Figure 4. Imports of Top Vegetables through Arizona Ports of Entry, January-April of the Year, ($)

Nogales Port still the No. 1 for Tomatoes, but the Lead is Narrowing

Sinaloa is still the largest tomato-producing state in Mexico, and thanks to geography, Arizona’s ports offer the closest access to the U.S. market.[3] For decades the Nogales port held absolute dominance as the main entry point, earning a popular royal distinction as the king of tomatoes. However, in recent years, a number of factors have contributed to an exponential rise in imports of tomatoes through the Texas ports of Hidalgo (Phar) and Laredo, as depicted in Figure 5.  Several central Mexican states, including San Luis Potosí, Michoacán, Zacatecas, and Jalisco, increased production of tomatoes by applying protected agriculture methods (e.g., greenhouses), which allow producers to supplement tomato exports to the U.S. during summer months as well as throughout the rest of the year. The majority of tomatoes produced in those central regions are exported through Texas ports, principally due to geography and improved transportation infrastructure.

The port of Otay Mesa in California, once second in tomato imports behind Nogales, has been specialized in import of tomatoes produced in Baja California and Baja California Sur during summer months.  While imports in the last ten years have increased, they were greatly surpassed by the rise in tomato imports at Hidalgo and Laredo.

Figure 5. Import of Mexican Tomatoes through Major Southern Ports ($)

Import of Fruit Was Also Affected by COVID-19 Pandemic

On an annual basis, the imports of fruit account for about one-third of fresh produce imported from Mexico through the Nogales port. The share of fruit increased in the last decade from below 30% at the beginning of the century, to 35% in 2021. Grapes and melons are two main fruit sorts, which together comprise more than 70% of all fruit import value on an annual basis. As shown in Figure 6, both kinds of fruit reach their peak import values between April-July with melons rising again in early fall, while grapes exhibit the highest import value within the shortest window from May to mid-July. Imports of both grapes and melons experienced the highest ever values (grapes worth $589.0 million and melons worth $340.3 million) in the pre-pandemic year 2019. The decline in 2020 was most likely due to decreased demand and field labor shortages caused by the pandemic, but weather conditions (such as frost and excessive rain) tend to affect especially grape production. The imported values of both the grapes and melons in 2021 were above 2020, but short of the record of 2019.

At present, Sonora is the main grape-producing region in Mexico, and the exclusive exporter of grapes to the U.S. market through the Nogales port. However, it may soon be joined by another grape-producing region, the state of Jalisco.[4]

Figure 6. Imports Top Two Fruit through Nogales Port ($)

The Case of That-Ever-More-Popular Avocado

By now it is well known that it had been that small green fruit from Michoacán, the avocado, that not so long ago helped Texas’ ports of Laredo and Hidalgo ascended to a position of leading importers of fruit from Mexico.  It has also been acknowledged that, while competition among ports plays some role, it is the geographical location of the growing regions relative to the U.S. market that is the main factor directing the majority of avocados to Texas’ border.  

The value of avocado shipped through the Nogales port (close to $50 million in 2021) accounted for less than 5% of the total imported fruit. As shown in Figure 7, imports in 2021 picked up and surpassed 2019 and 2020 levels, but it might have been primarily a result of a general spike in prices, reported to be as high as 81%.[5] The peak in January 2022 reflects the re-routing of some shipments from Texas ports due to protest and blockade by truckers triggered by increased inspection at U.S.-Mexico border crossings.[6]

Figure 7 also shows that the Nogales port at present facilitates more avocado imports than Otay Mesa in neighboring California. Both ports may benefit from new production of avocado in Jalisco, along the western coast of Mexico, which was recently authorized to export Hass avocados to the U.S. by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)  [7]

Figure 7. Imports of Mexican Avocado through Arizona and California ($)

In Summary: Is the Nogales Port No.1, No.3, or No.4?

The answer is: “it depends.” It all depends upon what measures are being used to compare the port of Nogales with other southern ports to establish its relative position. Table 1 identifies the relative position in each category based on dollar value of imports during 2021. Thus, Nogales holds first place in imports of all vegetables (HS 07), tomatoes (HS 0702), and grapes (080610). It holds third place in imports of avocados (HS 0804), and fourth place in imports of all fruits (HS 08). When vegetables and fruits are combined, the Nogales port holds an overall third place behind Hidalgo and Laredo, but ahead of Otay Mesa.

Table 1.  Imports of Mexican Fresh Produce: Ranking of Major Southern Ports, 2021 (based on $)

Compared to the pre-pandemic 2019, the Nogales port in 2021 retained its relative position except in imports of fruit where it slipped from the third place to the fourth place after being overtaken by Otay Mesa.[8]