Mexico Update: First Quarter 2017

March 30, 2017

Want to learn more about Mexico's economy? Keep abreast of changes in the U.S.-Mexico trade relationship and the economic environment for our nearest neighbor to the south? Browse research and news the AZMEX team recommends this quarter.

Research on the Mexican economy and U.S.-Mexico trade

The Wilson Center's Mexico Institute hosted an event with the International Monetary Fund's Mexico team, who presented the conclusions of their recently-completed 2016 Article IV consultation with Mexico "The State of Mexico's Economy."

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reports that Mexico’s economy grew at an annualized 4.0 percent pace in the third quarter of 2016, according to the second estimate released by Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (National Institute of Statistics and Geography). In addition, second-quarter growth was revised upward to a 0.2 percent annualized rate from the previous estimate of – 0.7 percent. More recent data on employment and industrial production also show improvement, however, exports and retail sales fell. Inflation ticked up in November to its highest level in two years as the peso depreciated. The consensus 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast was revised down considerably to 1.6 percent. Read more. 

Check out some great trade visualizations from Quartz Media. You can explore all $304.6 billion worth of goods the US imports from Mexico in a year. 

Border Tax or Border Adjustment: it makes a world of difference. Here are three good places to start learning about the intersection between tax reform and trade policy.

Econbrowser takes a crack at the subject in its recent article "What Does Corporate Tax Reform and Paying for the Wall Have to Do with Each Other?"

Author and economist Tim Taylor chips away at  "Border Adjustments, Tariffs, VAT, and the Corporate Income Tax" in his article from January, 2017.

William Gale at Brookings takes on the challenge of "Understanding the Republicans’ Corporate Tax Reform Proposals."

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast

The first quarter 2017 edition of the UTEP Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast (Volume 20, Issue # 1) is now available, download the PDF for free from UTEP's digital commons.  The report provides an overview of expected changes in the Mexican economy this year and in 2018.  Forecasted variables include: Mexico’s GDP, private consumption, government consumption, total investment, exports, imports and inflation, as well as the yield on 28-day treasury certificates (CETES) and the peso/dollar exchange rate.  The forecasts are produced by economists at prominent banks, universities, and other institutions in both Mexico and the United States. 

Mexico In the News

29 March 2017

U.K. initiates ‘Brexit’ and wades into a thorny thicket

Whatever happened to free trade? 

28 March 2017

Experts share data indicating the economic future of Northern Nevada is bright

Arizona and Sonora depend on one another, Mexican business group head says

Special report – business in Sonora 

27 March 2017

Tucson economy: Area ranks high for science, engineering grads 

20 March 2017

My view: Immigrants fuel Arizona’s economy

New rifts emerge as Trump administration rejects free trade statement at G-20 meeting 

17 March 2017

How much of Arizona’s economy goes south?

Tucson job growth will lag behind rest of Arizona, state agency says

4 takeaways from Mayor Rothschild’s state of the city address

Mexican senator to border wall builders: We don’t want your business

The global economy enjoys a synchronized upswing

U.S. farmers seek shelter from NAFTA storm

NAFTA architects: Ripping it would be ‘disastrous’ 

15 March 2017

U.S. sees Mexico as part of a regional ‘powerhouse,’ Navarro says

Chine to Trump: We don’t want a trade war – but if there is one, you’d lose 

14 March 2017

NAFTA: Has Arizona won or lost under the trade deal?