Mexico Update: Second Quarter 2017

Mexico Map
June 07, 2017

Want to learn more about Mexico's economy? Keep abreast of changes in the U.S.-Mexico trade relationship and the economic environment for our nearest neighbor to the south? Browse research and news the AZMEX team recommends this quarter.

Research on the Mexican Economy and U.S.-Mexico Trade

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently released a nice summary of the Mexican economy in the current international policy environment. It includes the IMF’s assessment of Mexican monetary and fiscal policy, as well as the current outlook and risks.

BBVA Compass has released its second quarter 2017 forecast for Mexico. “In 2017 the increased dynamism of the export sector could make up for the reduced dynamism of consumption and the somewhat unfavorable prospects for investment. Inflation continues to rise. The monetary tightening cycle continues, given the inflationary risks. The appreciation of the peso stands out favorably in an environment of greater demand for emerging market assets.”

The Wilson Center's Mexico Institute has a nice recording of the book launch for “Mexico: What Everyone Needs to Know” by Roderic Ai Camp, who is the Phillip M. McKenna Professor of the Pacific Rim at Claremont McKenna College. This work is designed to inform the general public as well as specialists with the most recent information and interpretations to a wide range of current issues affecting Mexico and Mexican-United States relations. See more at the Wilson Center website.

The UTEP Border Region Modeling Project has issued a new monthly report summarizing recent trends in the regional economy. The Borderplex Business Barometer is now available for download (free of charge) from UTEP’s Digital Commons website. The May edition includes a reprint of a policy brief on the contribution of international trade to the Texas economy.

Interested in anticipating economic downturns? See the latest effort by UTEP economists to predict recessions in southern border cities. The report is titled "Southern Border Recession Predictability in the United States: 1990-2015" and is available at UTEP's Digital Commons website. The report uses information on U.S. yield spreads as well as cross-border variables to predict recessions in U.S. border cities.

Mexico in the News

24 May 2017
Mexico and Canada say NAFTA talks with U.S. should be trilateral

World trade flows suggest strong economic growth this year

23 May 2017

Arizona exports dip to Mexico, jump to China and soar to three unlikely markets

Arizona semiconductor exports have best first quarter since recession

Trump wants to sell half of emergency US oil reserve

22 May 2017
As Trump reworks NAFTA Town Hall group heads to Mexico

Japan and Canada want to resurrect Pacific trade deal Trump killed

19 May 2017
Jobs report: Arizona wages rising faster than nation’s

Will Trump H-1B visa reforms hurt businesses across Arizona?

Blaming NAFTA: An expert explains how the fact don’t fit the narrative

North America now – economies entwined: supply chains crisscross borders, continent

Arizona, free traders brace as Trump starts reworking NAFTA

NAFTA renegotiation could come as early as August

How U.S. settles sugar dispute with Mexico could signal NAFTA intent

The share of foreign-born workers in the U.S. labor force reaches a new high

Why Vietnam will shape the future of the TPP

18 May 2017
What NAFTA talks could mean for U.S. consumers and business

OPEC ‘no longer in control’ of oil prices

Trump administration triggers launch of NAFTA renegotiations

17 May 2017
Trump administration weighs adding currency rules to NAFTA

16 May 2017
A decade after the crisis, how are the world’s banks doing?

15 May 2017
Road Runner: $500M RTA sales-tax shortfall to be filled in with state, federal funds

Will Trump policies help or hurt Arizona economy? Experts weigh in

Why Trump’s scorn for Pacific Trade Pact may have been hasty

Retail CEOs renew border-tax fight at meeting with Mnuchin

Another ‘Trump effect’: commerce drops by up to 30 percent in small U.S. border cities

The U.S.-China trade agreement – a huge deal for China

12 May 2017
Port of Tucson readies climate-controlled produce dock

Mexico disputes study ranking it as world’s second most dangerous country

Trucking industry’s tale of woe: too many big rigs

German growth outpaces U.S. on rising exports, construction

Mexico: ‘We have a lot of alternatives’

11 May 2017
Mexico warns U.S. of alternatives on trade, points to China

Mexico inflation rises at fastest pace since 2009

10 May 2017
Arizona losing the economic battle of yesteryear

Will Texas’ “show me your papers” bill go down the same rabbit hole as Arizona’s SB1070?

U.S. universities fear losing international students

Views of NAFTA less positive – and more partisan – in U.S. than in Canada and Mexico

8 May 2017
Gov. Ducey: I’ve got my eye on Tucson

State auditor: RTA’s first decade “on-budget and on-schedule”

Make way for transcontinental highway, CANAMEX

Key findings about U.S. immigrants

5 May 2017
Arizona border counties form coalition to protect trade with Mexico

How Mexico’s unions sell out autoworkers

Where immigrant growth matters most

U.S. trade deficit improves slightly in March

4 May 2017
Air Canada launching Montreal flights to Phoenix

NAFTA’s impact: Real or imagined, Trump campaigned on promise to renegotiate it, bring work back to US

Paving the way for CANAMEX, highway of the future

U.S. trade gap with Mexico widens amid weak peso

Cross-border data flows: Where are the barriers, and what do they cost?

2 May 2017
Aeromar adds a day of Tucson-Mexico flights

NAFTA scorecard: Who gained, who was pained

The border’s new boundaries, Part II: Living on the edge

Meeting planned in Nogales to present I-11 corridor alternatives

Trump’s trade warrior is the most unpopular economist in the class

China’s economic miracle has an ugly underbelly

1 May 2017
‘Brain drain’ persists in Arizona

New UA McGuire Center chief plots growth strategies

Arizona’s ‘Mr. Canada’ is confident US, Canada relations will survive NAFTA changes, Trump trade talk

The border’s new boundaries, Part I: digital towers